Action Economics Survey Results: 62k Jump in Initial Jobless Claims First Indicator to Show Some of Harvey Effects

Action Economics said the 62k jump in initial jobless claims was the first indicator to show some of the effects Hurricane Harvey. New York Fed William Dudley said in a CNBC interview the economic effects will be mixed over the next several months. And indeed, this week’s Action Economics survey reveals the difficulties in estimating the impacts with some wide variance in several indicators, especially the production and sentiment figures.

Meanwhile, it’s still the case no one looks for any change in rates at the September 19, 20 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, though the Fed is likely to announce the start of its normalization process.

Yet, Dudley did suggest while the FOMC’s longer run rate path shouldn’t be affected, the timing of the next move might be. And though the survey median continues to reveal a 25-basis-point tightening in December, a few participants changed their call to an unchanged stance, lowering the mean estimate to 1.319% for December 13, from 1.342% last week.

There is a lot of key data ahead, and medians show the consumer price index posting respective gains of 0.3% and 0.2% for the headline and core figures for August. Retail sales are estimated edging up 0.1% overall, and up 0.5% ex-autos. Industrial production is expected to rise 0.2% in August, but estimates ranged from 0.6% to -0.6%.

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